This brings us to the latest trend in tech finance: circular deals, where companies invest in each other to create the illusion of value while actually just moving money around like a shell game at a carnival. It's the financial equivalent of two people agreeing to buy each other's NFTs for $1 million each and declaring themselves millionaires. The only thing missing is the part where this makes any sense for actual humans who don't own private islands.
Quick Summary
- What: Amazon may invest $10B in OpenAI in exchange for OpenAI using Amazon's AI chips
- Impact: Creates another circular tech deal where companies invest in each other's ecosystems
- For You: Your AI assistant will soon be sponsored by Amazon's 'Buy Now' button
The Great AI Money Laundering Scheme
Let's break down this beautiful piece of financial theater. Amazon, the company that brought you one-click shopping and dystopian warehouse conditions, wants to give $10 billion to OpenAI, the organization that brought you ChatGPT and existential dread about job security. In return, OpenAI promises to use Amazon's AI chips, which Amazon desperately needs people to use because they spent billions developing them and so far the main customer has been... Amazon.
Why This Makes Perfect Nonsense
This isn't an investment—it's a corporate version of 'I'll scratch your back if you scratch mine, and also I'll pay you $10 billion to scratch my back.' The circular deal trend has reached its logical conclusion: companies are now just paying each other to be customers. Next week, we'll probably hear that Google is investing $15 billion in Microsoft if Microsoft promises to use Google's search engine. It's capitalism's ouroboros, eating its own tail while claiming it's 'building ecosystem value.'
The Chip Conundrum
Amazon's AI chips, known as Trainium and Inferentia, are actually quite good. The problem is that everyone in AI is already using Nvidia's chips because, well, that's what everyone else is using. It's the tech equivalent of everyone going to the same overpriced coffee shop because it's where everyone else goes. So Amazon's solution? Pay the most popular kid in school $10 billion to hang out at your coffee shop. Problem solved!
The 'We're Not Competing, We're Collaborating' Dance
What makes this particularly hilarious is that Amazon already has its own AI ambitions with Amazon Q and Bedrock. OpenAI is technically a competitor. But in today's tech landscape, competitors are just friends you haven't paid $10 billion yet. It's like if Coke invested in Pepsi to make sure Pepsi uses Coke's secret formula storage facilities. Totally normal business practice.
The Circular Economy of Silicon Valley
This deal represents the pinnacle of what I like to call 'The Great Tech Circle Jerk.' Here's how it works:
- Company A invests in Company B
- Company B agrees to use Company A's products
- Company A's stock goes up because 'strategic partnership'
- Company B's valuation increases because 'major investment'
- Everyone pretends this creates actual value rather than just moving numbers around
- Repeat until the music stops
It's financial engineering masquerading as innovation. The real product isn't AI—it's the appearance of momentum and growth for shareholders who stopped asking hard questions around 2021.
What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
Let's consider the potential outcomes of this brilliant arrangement:
Scenario 1: The Partnership Actually Works
OpenAI gets $10 billion, uses Amazon's chips, Amazon's cloud business grows, and everyone makes money. The downside? We've now cemented that the path to AI dominance isn't better technology, but deeper pockets. The message to startups: don't bother building something innovative, just find a sugar daddy tech giant.
Scenario 2: The Regulatory Nightmare
Regulators wake up from their decade-long nap and notice that every major tech company now has stakes in every other major tech company. The resulting antitrust investigations make the Microsoft case look like a parking ticket. Court proceedings last longer than most tech careers.
Scenario 3: The Music Stops
The circular deal trend reaches its inevitable conclusion when Company Z tries to invest in Company A, completing the circle. The entire tech industry becomes one giant Möbius strip of investments, with money flowing endlessly without ever creating anything new. Economists develop new terms like 'recursive capitalism' and 'infinite money glitch.'
The Real Winners (Hint: Not You)
While this deal will undoubtedly make headlines and boost some stock prices, let's consider who actually benefits:
- Investment Bankers: Collecting fees for arranging deals where companies pay each other
- Tech Executives: Getting to announce 'strategic partnerships' at all-hands meetings
- Shareholders: Seeing their portfolios go up because of financial engineering
- Consultants: Charging millions to explain why this makes sense
And who doesn't benefit? Pretty much everyone else. The engineers still have to make the chips work. The products still have to actually function. And consumers still have to deal with AI that occasionally suggests putting glue on pizza because its training data came from the internet's darkest corners.
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